Weekly Takes - Monday, October 25 Edition

Weekly Takes - Monday, October 25 Edition

1. My three stars from the Maple Leafs’ overtime loss to the Rangers on Monday…

1. Auston Matthews

2. Jack Campbell

3. Michael Bunting

Outside of Campbell’s puck-handling (which remains bad), the Leafs could not ask for a better start to the season from Campbell. He looks as poised as he ever has in net.

As for the game, the Leafs dominated and still managed to come away with a point. It is an annoying loss but they will have games throughout the season that they win despite having no business doing do. Such is life in the NHL.

2. My three stars from the Maple Leafs’ lackluster loss to the Sharks on Friday…

1. Ondrej Kase

2. Jason Spezza

3. Bunting

First off, I did not like the decision to start Michael Hutchinson tonight. This is something I always agreed with Mike Babcock on. Maximize your chances of winning the most winnable game. With three days off against a projected non-playoff team on the second half of a back-to-back, this game was just that.

With that being said, they did not lose because of this decision or Hutchinson’s play, for as poor as it was. They lost because Matthews and Mitch Marner were embarrassingly bad.

Friday’s game was Matthews’ worst game in the NHL and Marner’s performance was not any better.

I’m not sure what’s going on with Marner (outside of a clear lack of effort) but he has to snap out of it because so far this season he has been the fourth best right winger on the Leafs.

3. No three stars from the Maple Leafs’ loss to the Penguins. All there is to say is that it was the worst loss of the Matthews era and there is no easy fix.

They have fired the coach, they have replaced the general manager, they have changed the supporting cast, they have changed the dress code, they have kept the core group intact, they gave letters to Matthews and Marner, etc, etc.

This is on the core group. They either pull through this season or the core gets split up. It’s really that simple. There are no major changes to make between now and the end of the playoffs.

4. Based off the Leafs’ first six games of the season, here is what I would start doing forward lines and powerplay wise if I was Sheldon Keefe…

5 V 5...

Alexander Kerfoot - Matthews - William Nylander

Bunting - John Tavares - Marner

Pierre Engvall (Ilya Mikhyev in this spot when he is healthy) - David Kampf - Kase

Nick Ritchie - Spezza - Wayne Simmonds

Ideally the Leafs acquire a top line left winger to play with Matthews and Nylander so that Kerfoot can go back to playing with Kampf and Kase as the third line has been the Leafs’ best line to begin this season. It’s been the definition of the perfect shutdown line, outside of a tough night on Saturday.

It would also allow Mikheyev to drop to the fourth line, adding some much-needed speed to the line.

PP…

Unit One…

Matthews (left flank) - Simmonds (affront of the net) - Bunting (bumper) - Nylander (right flank)

Sandin (point)

Unit Two…

Marner (left flank) - Ritchie (affront of the net) - Tavares (Bumper) - Spezza (right flank)

Reilly (point)

Would any of this work? I have no idea. At even strength, the Leafs play a way too much perimeter-based offence and on the power play, they are as predictable as they were last season.

It is really, really concerning. They will get away with it in the regular season (probably) because of how talented they are but this is not going to work in the playoffs.

It all starts with Marner. He has gone from being a two-way, energetic superstar to a all-or-nothing one dimensional forward. He looks broken.

This core group truly is on their last legs unless they and they alone show otherwise and that is why I fail to understand the criticism from people who say “relax, it’s only been six games.”

It has not been “just” six games. This is season number five of this. This past weekend feels like a precursor of what’s going to happen in the playoffs, just like last season’s loss to Ottawa after leading 5-1 felt like that and just like the David Ayers game two seasons ago felt like that.

In life, you are what your habits are and that is why I liked what Kevin Bieksa said during the second intermission on Sunday night.

Fans and members of the media can say “can we get to the playoffs already” but the players cannot. This group has to appreciate the grind of the 82-game season and have to instal the necessary habits that a championship caliber team needs in order to be successful in the spring.

So far, no good. The good news is, there are still 76 games left. It’s time for this core group to stop feeling bad for themselves and for them to completely change how they play as a group.

They will not get credit for doing so from fans or the media until they win in the playoffs but they cannot care about that. The rest of this regular season has to be a pure business trip.

5. The last question about the Maple Leafs after this past week is… do they even make the playoffs?

I still think yes, even if they have to do it the hard way via a wild card spot. They are too talented not to make the playoffs, even with all their flaws that I have already wrote about.

The issue is, this can get away from them really quick if they have another tough week. This is as hot the city has been since “salute gate.” They have to win two out of their three games this week. Otherwise, I truly do not know how this core will be able to recover.

It is also important to note that schedule wise, October is their easiest month. They are going to have to figure all of this out internally.

6. My takeaways from the first three Raptors’ games of the season…

• The overreaction to their home opening loss was ridiculous. Their half-court offence will be bad all season, yes, but they are a better defensive team than they showed and Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby will not shoot that bad over the course of the season. Everything that could go wrong did go wrong. It just so happened to be in the first game.

• He will have growing pains throughout the season -- particularly with his shot -- but Scottie Barnes is a clear superstar in the making.

• I am intrigued with Precious Achiuwa’s skill set -- to say the least -- but to say his game is a work in progress would be an understatement. He should not be starting over Khem Birch. I like Achiuwa’s energy skill set off the bench.

• From playing defence to generating (some) of his own offence, Garry Trent Jr. looks to be miles ahead of where he was last season. A real ball player now.

7. Despite his inability to shoot, Ben Simmons is a clear playmaking, defensive star in the NBA who can probably be the second best player on a championship team.

His issue is (if I was a team interested in trading for him) that he has shown zero killer instinct when the game is on the line.

That is a massive concern. Him causing the drama that he is currently causing only adds to my worries about Ben Simmons the person.

Typically, when a star begins to act up, it increases the likelihood of a trade. He is killing his chances of being traded anytime soon.

8. Kyle Dubas had to be watching in envy as Atlanta made it to the World Series on Saturday night.

Alex Anthopoulos went all-in at the deadline for Atlanta this season, as he so often does when his team has a X percentage chance of winning the World Series.

Dubas followed the same method this past spring and was… not rewarded the same way.

I am a big fan of what Anthopoulos does and what Dubas did. Your team is not going to be in a championship window for as long as you think. When you are in it, do everything you can to make your team better.

9. Kansas City is no longer a Super Bowl contending team in my eyes.

Yes, Patrick Mahomes can turn his season around and drag his team into the playoffs but they are not winning a Super Bowl with their defence.

If I had to rank Super Bowl contending teams, I would go…

1. Tampa Bay (- since my last ranking)

2. Rams (-)

3. Bills (-)

4. Cardinals (+4)

5. Packers (-)

6. Cowboys (+3)

7. Browns (-3)

8. Chargers (-1)

9. Ravens (New)

I like the Titans, Raiders, and Bengals but I do not view them as serious Super Bowl contenders at all.

10. My week eight NFL picks…

• Packers (+3.5)

• Steelers (+3)

• Bills (-13)

• Panthers (+2.5)

• Bengals (-9.5)

• Titans (+1.5)

• 49ers (-4)

• Eagles (-2.5)

• Rams (-14)

• Chargers (-5.5)

• Seahawks (-3)

• Bucs (-3.5)

• Football Team (+3)

• Cowboys (-2)

• Giants (+10)

Survivor Team Pick: Bengals (Through the first seven weeks, I have picked the Rams, Packers, Ravens, Bills, Vikings, Kansas City, and Cardinals)

I went 6-6 in week seven, with Monday Night Football still pending. On the season, I am 53-49 on the season.