Weekly Takes - Monday, October 17 Edition

Weekly Takes - Monday, October 17 Edition

1. An easy explanation of the Maple Leafs cap situation…

The team probably knew for the majority of the summer that Timothy Liljegren was going to miss the start of the season due to his injury, so Kyle Dubas and ‘co felt no pressure to move out a contract prior to the start of the season knowing that Liljegren was going to begin the season on LTIR.

Not trading a contract in the summer allows them to be patient as the start of this season unfolds. Maybe by the time Liljegren is back, someone else gets hurt and they still do not need to trade anyone. Or maybe another team in the league suffers a noteworthy injury, making Alex Kerfoot or Justin Holl an attractive trade piece.

It is not ideal, having one player get injured in warmup away from having to play a skater short, but if there is anyone you should trust on the matter, it is Brandon Pridham.

2. My three stars from the Leafs awful opening night loss to the Habs…

1. Denis Malgin

2. Mitch Marner

3. Kerfoot

A pretty simple loss to analyze: The Habs did not let their foot off the gas from a competitive standpoint at any point, while the Leafs looked as though they were sleeping through the game. Just cannot happen.

Yes, it was Montreal’s home opener, so their building was alive, but this team has to match the effort that opposing teams will bring all season long because every team is going to give their best effort against them, knowing that if they do not, the Leafs will light them up on the scoresheet.

So, a nice, early wake-up call for the team in that regard, even though this group should be well past wake-up calls, as Sheldon Keefe thankfully alluded to postgame.

That does not mean there were no concerns, though.

Jake Muzzin looked like he had no business being on the ice. He could not move at an NHL pace, could not handle the Habs forecheck at all, and could not even flip the puck out late in the game when the team needed him to do so the most.

Justin Holl did not look all that much better.

That is on those two but it is also on Keefe. It was one thing to reunite the pairing coming into the season knowing how poorly they played together last season, but it is another to play them in the last 30 seconds of the game knowing how awful they were all night.

Outside of all that, though, this is just a forgettable loss throughout the course of a season. An extra save from Matt Murray would have been nice but he made some big saves and did not let in any weak ones. He looked calm in the net. His biggest thing is going to be shutting out the noise after losses like these, because he is going to be the number one target of fans and media, rightly or wrongly.

3. The Leafs loss to the Habs serves as a nice reminder as to what we should really be paying attention to this regular season.

1. The goaltending. If one of Murray or Ilya Samsonov can not provide starting-calibre goaltending between now and the trade deadline, it is going to take a trade deadline miracle to save the season and Kyle Dubas’ job.

2. Muzzin. If he can play like a top-four defenceman, the Leafs are set on defence. But if not, a top-four defenceman (and making Muzzin’s contract go away) is going to be the team’s biggest non-goalie need at the deadline.

3. The second line. This is way down the list of concerns, but still in the top three, as if one of Malgin/Nick Roberston can not complement John Tavares and William Nylander accordingly on the second line, Dubas will have to find someone who can do so at the deadline.

Every other storyline is just noise, as I believe A) Every other issue is not an issue at all or B) Every other issue can be sorted out internally.

These three storylines outlined will make or break this season. I am confident item three will not be an issue, as I am high on Roberston and could not be more impressed with Malgin right now, but it is still noteworthy. The two biggest storylines are items one and two, because they are real concerns that this team cannot afford to be an issue.

4. My three stars from the Leafs bounce-back win over the Capitals on Thursday…

1. Nylander

2. Tavares

3. Auston Matthews

The effort was there in a 50/50 game. The difference was the Leafs best players were their best players.

Nylander and Tavares look completely locked in to begin the season.

A huge bounce-back performance from Muzzin too, who looked great.

It was also nice to see the Leafs match the Capitals – a heavy team – from a physical perspective. Matthews, Michael Bunting, and the fourth line did not hide.

5. The Murray injury is unfortunate but it goes to show how perfectly everything is going to have to align for the trade to pay off.

He is going to have to stay healthy once he comes back and he is going to have to rebound from a performance standpoint. One of those things seems possible, but having both happen has always seemed like a long shot.

It was as risky of a trade as Dubas could have possibly made and the early returns could not look worse. Murray will now have to jump back on a running ship, stay healthy the rest of the year, and provide average goaltending for the team.

Doubtful. I hope for Dubas and Murray’s case that this works, but this entire experiment seems over before it even started.

It is now Samsonov’s net. And if he can not perform and/or gets injured, it is going to get ugly.

6. My three stars from the Leafs win over the Senators on Saturday…

1. Matthews

2. Marner

3. Samsonov

The Leafs were the better team for almost the entire game despite looking a bit off. A solid four-point win.

Samsonov looked locked-in.

7. Hockey Canada, after dragging its feet for way too long, has finally cleaned house.

The next step is replacing everyone with competent, diverse thinkers, who will then be tasked with implementing foundational changes. Once/if that happens is when sponsors should finally feel comfortable getting back on board. Until that happens, this is just one important step in many that have to follow.

8. Scott Servais pulling his closer with two out in the ninth inning for a starting pitcher is yet another mind-blowing move by a manager this postseason, with or without hindsight.

Extraordinary circumstances aside, it is almost impossible to reinvent the wheel in playoff baseball. Every year managers try to bring in starting pitchers in high-leverage situations and it almost never works.

Yes, it gave the Mariners a lefty-on-lefty matchup, but that was the only upside to making the move. The downsides (Ray is not a reliever, he has been struggling for a month now, and he was facing an elite power hitter as a home run-prone pitcher) should have been more than enough reasons not to make the move.

So far this October, teams have gotten what they have deserved.

9. We can label the Padres series win over the Dodgers as a shocking upset due to the gap between the two teams in the regular season, but the reality is, regular season records have no barring over how a playoff matchup between two teams will unfold.

Playoff baseball, unlike any other sport, is all about the one-on-one matchup. Who has the better starting rotation? Who has the better bullpen? If the answer to those two questions is the same team, that team is in a great position to win the series, even if they won way fewer games throughout the season.

These playoffs should serve as a great wake-up call to the Blue Jays that they have no choice but to invest in an elite bullpen this off-season. Otherwise, it is nearly impossible to sustain a long playoff run.

10. My 2022-2023 NBA Predictions…

Eastern Conference

1. Boston

2. Philadelphia

3. Milwaukee

4. Brooklyn

(Gap)

5. Atlanta

6. Toronto

7. Miami

8. Cleveland

(Gap)

9. Charlotte

10. New York

11. Washington

12. Chicago

13. Orlando

14. Indiana

15. Detroit

Western Conference

1. Denver

2. Golden State

3. Phoenix

4. Los Angeles Clippers

5. New Orleans

6. Memphis

7. Minnesota

8. Dallas

(Gap)

9. Los Angeles Lakers

10. Portland

11. Sacramento

(Gap)

12. Utah

13. San Antonio

14. Houston

15. Oklahoma

NBA Finals Prediction: Clippers defeats Boston

My 2022-2023 National Basketball Association Individual Awards Predictions

- Most Valuable Player: Giannis Antetokounmpo

- Rookie of the Year: Paolo Banchero

- Most Improved Player of the Year: Zion Williamson

- Defensive Player of the Year: Draymond Green

- Sixth Man of the Year: Malcolm Brogdon

- Executive of the Year Award: Trajan Langdon

- Coach of the Year: Michael Malone

It will be another wide-open season in the NBA, which is refreshing to say. That is why I would have liked to see Masai Ujiri and the Raptors go a bit more “all in” this past offseason. Scottie Barnes, Precious Achiuwa, Gary Trent Jr., and OG Anunoby are all very young, yes, but Fred Van Vleet and Pascal Siakam are not. They will at worst be a play-in team and can beat any team on any given night, but they are not winning a championship. Sooner rather than later, the Raptors will have to be back in championship contention while their two stars are still in their prime. One more season of development is fine to know exactly what they have and what they need, but after this, it has to be “go time” for Ujiri and ‘co.

11. The NFL is trying to make up for their handling of the Tua Tagovailoa situation by overprotecting quarterbacks who are the victims of clean sacks.

It must stop immediately because it is ruining the product on the field.

And perhaps more importantly, it has to stop because it is ruining the integrity of sports betting. Leagues cannot push gambling down everyone’s throats only to compromise the integrity of people’s bets in order to cover up their own incompetence.

12. The firing of Matt Rhule is a great reminder that hiring a top college coach to coach your NFL team is almost never a good idea.

College coaches are so focused on running their programs that when they get hired into the NFL, they are way behind in their knowledge. It shows every time.

There is no doubt in my mind that Rhule will go to a disappointing college and turn their program around, but he was never going to succeed in the NFL.

13. The odds of the Steelers making the playoffs remains low because their team is… not good, or well-coached on the offensive side of the ball, but a win on Sunday against the Dolphins can change everything.

They are only a game back of the Ravens and Bengals for first place in the AFC North, both of whom are about to enter the toughest part of their schedules, while the Steelers are about to exit the toughest part of their schedule.

They are right in the thick of things if they beat the Dolphins, more so given how healthy they are about to get.

14. My Week 7 NFL predictions…

• Saints (+2.5)

• Colts (+2.5)

• Giants (+3)

• Bucs (-9.5)

• Packers (-5)

• Cowboys (-7)

• Falcons (+6.5)

• Browns (+6.5)

• Jets (+3.5)

• Raiders (-7)

• Chargers (-6.5)

• Steelers (+6.5)

• Bears (+7.5)

I went 6-7 in Week 6, with Monday Night Football still pending.

On the season, I am 38-52.

15. My four college football playoff teams, after the best College Football Saturday in recent memory…

1. Ohio State

2. Georgia

3. Tennessee

4. Clemson

Michigan and Alabama are firmly in the mix. An extreme outside shot, but still a shot for UCLA, Ole Miss, TCU, and Syracuse.