Weekly Takes - Monday, May 15th Edition

Weekly Takes - Monday, May 15th Edition

1. My three stars from the Maple Leafs game one loss to the Panthers on Tuesday…

1. Matthew Knies

2. Auston Matthews

3. William Nylander

The Leafs played more than fine enough to win, but there is no question that adjustments are needed heading into game two.

The Panthers may not be better than Tampa Bay, but they are faster and present challenges that Tampa did not, especially on the penalty kill.

Have to rebound in game two and turn this into a best-of-five series.

2. My three stars from the Leafs inexcusable game two loss to the Panthers on Thursday…

1. Alex Kerfoot

2. Ryan O’Reilly

3. Morgan Rielly

Awful.

Up 2-0 in a near must-win game and their stars choked it away by mailing in the start of the second period. They played well after going down 3-2 but the damage was done.

They now have to go to Florida and win both. Flat out. Doable, more so given how unlucky they have been through the first two games. But their stars need to be way better.

3. My three stars from the Leafs embarrassing game three loss on Sunday…

1. Sam Lafferty

2. David Kampf

3. Joseph Woll

The worst game from the Leafs core players since game six in Montreal in 2021. Totally nonexistent. Inexcusable, embarrassing, and unacceptable.

I thought finally advancing past round one would have taken all the pressure off this group, but they have reverted back to their old selves.

That opens up so many possibilities for this group moving forward that no one would have thought was still an option a week ago.

Quite unfortunate, but they made their own bed here. Absolutely embarrassing.

4. My three stars from the Leafs season-saving game four win on Wednesday…

1. Nylander

2. Woll

3. Luke Schenn

Their best game since game two against Tampa Bay. Now they have to do it three more times to save themselves from total embarrassment.

5. My three stars from the Leafs season-ending loss to the Panthers on Friday…

1. Nylander

2. Morgan Rielly

3. Woll

When it comes to the game itself, the officiating was awful. Calling a goal back because an official “meant” to blow a whistle is an all-time bad call. The Panthers also should have been called for a penalty at the end of regulation and then again on the game-winning goal.

Regardless though, the Leafs were the better team, as they were in every game except for game three. I was happy with how they rebounded from their game three performance.

Now, game three was a true black mark given how they reverted back to their old selves, but not every game is going to be pretty. You just have to hope the bounces even out and they surely did not in this series.

Given that, I fail to see how you make any major changes. This team finally showed they can beat the very best the NHL has to offer come playoff time (Tampa Bay) and they outplayed the Panthers in round two. It is a results-driven business come the spring, yes, but to make mass changes simply because they lost will not correlate to winning next time around.

I would keep Kyle Dubas and Sheldon Keefe (though I think the organization has to at least explore replacing Keefe), while I would also keep the core four together.

6. The reason you have to at least explore firing Keefe is that he can largely be a scapegoat.

Firing Dubas or trading a member of the core four can come back to haunt this team. Firing Keefe would not, while also providing a meaningful change to the group from a leadership, different voice perspective, etc.

There are also hockey reasons to do so. He lost complete control of his lines in round two and I truly believe he has the team playing “too structured” come playoff time.

They can do a lot worse than having Keefe as the coach, but maybe they can do better. It is something that they will have to explore.

7. Potential Keefe replacements, should they fire him…

• Spencer Carberry (Leafs PP Coach)

• Andrew Brunette (Devils Associate Coach)

• Paul McFarland (Kraken PP Coach/Former Leafs PP Coach)

• John Gruden (Bruins PK Coach)

• Tim Gleason (Hurricanes PK Coach/Former Leaf)

• Jay Leach (Kraken PK Coach)

• Ryan Warsofsky (Sharks PK Coach)

• Jeff Halpern (Lightning PP Coach)

And should they fire Dubas…

• Eric Tulsky (Hurricanes AGM)

• Lawrence Gilman (Leafs AGM)

• Mathieu Darche (Lightning AGM)

• Mike Gillis (Former Canucks GM)

So, whether it is at the head coaching position or the general manager position, I have no interest in the Leafs going through recycled candidates, outside of Gillis, who has been out of the sport for years.

There are other names out there who are quite interesting, but the Leafs are in win-now mode, so the idea that they should hire someone simply because they are a “rising star” in the industry is not a great one. It needs to be a healthy mix of a candidate being progressive but also polished.

8. When I say keep the core four together, that is based purely on hockey reasons.

Business-wise, you have to explore trading both Matthews and Nylander if they do not commit to re-signing on July 1st. You cannot lose either asset in free agency a year from now.

I truly do believe Matthews will commit, but the Nylander contract negotiations will be an interesting one.

9. As for the free agents this year, here is what I would be doing if I were Kyle Dubas…

Must Re-sign…

• Noel Acciari

• Schenn

Can Re-sign…

• Ryan O’Reilly

• Kampf

• Michael Bunting

• Zach Aston-Reese

• Erik Gustafsson

Do not Re-sign…

• Kerfoot

• Wayne Simmonds

• Justin Holl

Schenn is the best partner Rielly has ever had in his career, while Acciari is everything you want in a third-line checking winger. O’Reilly is going to come down to cost, while Kampf and Bunting will come down to whether or not the Leafs feel they can replace them via bargain hunting. Aston-Reese and Gustafsson will likely only re-sign if they feel as though there will be regular playing time for them.

10. Based on all that, here is what my lines would ideally be by the fall, barring massive changes to the core…

Forwards…

Knies - Matthews - Nylander

Jarnkrok - John Tavares - Marner

Bunting/Free Agent - O’Reilly - Acciari

Pontus Holmberg - Kampf/Free Agent - Lafferty

Defence…

Rielly - Schenn

McCabe - T.J. Brodie

Gustafsson/Free Agent - Liljegren

Mark Giordano - Connor Timmins

Goaltending…

Ilya Samsonov

Woll

Up front, the bottom six is going to need some serious work, in either retaining players or replacing players. From a pure cap perspective, it is likely going to have to be a mix of both.

On defence, whether it is Gustafsson or a free agent, I think the best route is going to be finding a replacement for Giordano on the third pairing. He cannot be locked into that spot anymore.

Regardless, they will have the potential to be a Stanley Cup contender next season. But with every wasted opportunity, the window gets smaller and smaller. It is Cup or bust from here on out. Winning a round will no longer be close to acceptable. That was always the bare minimum.

11. I understand the excitement from a fan base when a new owner comes in and instantly makes splash after splash, but Matt Ishiba may be in over his head with the Suns.

The Kevin Durant trade was smart and bold, but firing Monty Williams – an elite head coach – feels like an owner grasping at straws.

The issue for the Suns was not Williams, it was the lack of depth around their two stars.

Williams should surge to the top of the Raptors list should they go after a veteran head coach.

12. Here is the issue for the 76ers: Their best player, the supposed MVP of the league, is an injury-prone player who has faltered in every must-win game that he has ever played in.

You can maybe get away with that in hockey or baseball if the supporting cast is great, but not in basketball.

The 76ers may just have to accept the reality that they are a pretender with this core. Always have been and probably will always be.

13. Toronto FC needs to completely clean house – again.

They were a flawed, superstar-dependent team coming into the season and that is what they are today.

Inexcusable, given the young core that was in place when they hired Bob Bradley, who needs to be fired alongside Bill Manning.

You cannot buy your way to the top in MLS.