Weekly Takes - Monday, July 18 Edition

Weekly Takes - Monday, July 18 Edition

1. The Matt Murray to the Maple Leafs trade is one of the more remarkable gambles in franchise history.

There is no denying Murray’s upside given his size, calmness in the net, history of winning big games, etc, but he is 28, has never played more than 49 games in a season, and has a rather extensive injury history.

Never mind the fact that his play has been beyond inconsistent even when he has been healthy.

If this pays off, it is a coup, given the Leafs traded nothing to get him, got a division rival to pay part of his salary, and received an asset as a sweetener. And it could very well pay off, for the reasons I listed.

But if it does not pay off, it is one of the more costly trades in franchise history and will cost Kyle Dubas his job, with Auston Matthews one year away from free agency. And it very well could not pay off, for the reasons I listed.

This move makes or breaks everything about this era.

2. Even if the move does pay off, it is hard to fathom how Dubas was not able to get more in return for taking on Murray’s contract.

He was placed on waivers midseason, was nearly traded a week prior, and only wanted to be traded to certain teams, with the market drying up around him.

Dubas had to get more from Ottawa in the deal. Had to.

3. There is major risk with the Murray trade regardless of who the backup is going to be, but it cannot be Joseph Woll or Erik Kallgren.

Kallgren is probably not an NHL goaltender, while Woll had his fair of injury issues himself a season ago and may very well not be an NHL goalie either. Dubas needs to sign or trade for a backup that can carry the load for a bit if/when Murray struggles and/or gets injured. The risk is what it is at this point – Dubas needs to lower it the best he can.

4. Dubas did exactly what I wrote above with the signing of Ilya Samsonov.

He comes with a ton of risk himself, but he stays healthy, can play long stretches, and has a massive amount of upside.

He is the perfect backup who could very well be the starter come game one of the playoffs.

5. The one thing I do not understand though is people saying “why take such a big risk with this goal tandem?”

This is beyond risky from a performance standpoint, but it is not as risky as signing Jack Campbell – who may very well be a lesser goalie – to a five-year contract. Or signing Ville Husso, who is beyond unproven, to a long-term contract.

Unless the Leafs were signing Darcy Kuemper, there was always going to be a massive amount of risk regarding the goalie that was coming in. And even then, that Kuemper contract is not going to age well.

This is the hand everyone who needed a goalie has been dealt. It is now just a matter if Dubas got this one correct or not.

6. The Maple Leafs had no choice but to rebuild their fourth line and the signing of Nic Abue-Kubel does that.

He is the prototypical fourth liner that every Stanley Cup team has.

Dubas now needs to go out and find two more bottom six players like him.

7. Dubas addressed one of those holes with the signing of Calle Jarnkrok, a swiss-army knife who should replace Alexander Kerfoot, who has no future in Toronto.

The parade of letting useful players walk into free agency has to end. Trade Kerfoot now and collect assets for him.

8. As for the free agents the Leafs let walk, it was an absolute no-brainer to let Ilya Mikheyev walk, for reasons I have previously mentioned.

Letting Ilya Lubushkin walk was an easy decision too, given the price he ended up commanding and the depth the Leafs have on defence. In an ideal world, they would have brought back Ondrej Kase, but it is tough spending money on a bottom-six forward who is always hurt. We saw in the playoffs how ineffective he was and that was because he was never able to get into the groove of things due to injuries.

The only bummer is losing Colin Blackwell, a great fourth-line centre. The Leafs have to address that position.

9. Notable deals that I liked and disliked throughout the NHL…

Liked…

• Johnny Gaudreau (Blue Jackets)

• Mason Marchment (Blues)

• Dylan Strome (Capitals)

Disliked…

• Nick Leddy (Blues)

• Josh Manson (Avs)

• Claude Giroux (Senators)

• Campbell (Oilers)

• Erik Gudbranson (Blue Jackets)

• Vincent Trocheck (Rangers)

• Ondrej Palat (Devils)

• Ben Chairot (Red Wings)

Basically, outside of star players and relatively young players who did not receive qualifying offers, I do not see the appeal in giving term to anyone in free agency unless it greatly lowers the AAV. The Devils, for example, will get a couple of good years out of Palat, but that contract is going to age absolutely awful.

Well-ran teams build their teams through the draft and via trades. It is a cliche for a reason.

10. Charlie Montoyo was the perfect manager for a rebuilding Blue Jays team in 2019 and 2020 but he was never going to be the manager that leads this team to a championship.

Now was a great time to move on from him, with the clubhouse clearly needing a shakeup. John Schneider sure seems like a nice replacement and someone who can be the manager of the future.