Weekly Takes - Monday, April 17th Edition

Weekly Takes - Monday, April 17th Edition

1. My three stars from the Maple Leafs win over the Panthers on Monday…

1. Ilya Samsonov

2. Michael Bunting

3. Justin Holl

The Leafs were outplayed by a desperate hockey team, but their goalie and elite forwards won them the game.

That’ll happen every so often.

2. My three stars from the Leafs win over the Lightning on Tuesday…

1. Joseph Woll

2. William Nylander

3. Ryan O’Reilly

Toronto may very well have a goalie in Woll. He has looked excellent at the NHL level. It took him a while to adapt to the AHL, but that is why you must stay patient with goalie prospects, especially ones with Woll’s size and athleticism.

3. With the NHL regular season complete, here are a list of general managers and head coaches that I would move on from if I were their respective teams…

General Managers…

• Jarmo Kekalainen (Blue Jackets)

• Pierre Dorion (Senators)

• Ron Hextall (Penguins) (Already Have)

• Patrick Allvin (Canucks)

• Kevin Chevladayoff (Jets)

Head Coaches…

• Dallas Eakins (Ducks) Already Have)

• Darryl Sutter (Flames)

• Paul Maurice (Panthers)

• D.J. Smith (Senators)

• Rick Bowness (Jets)

4. My NHL regular season awards…

MVP: Connor McDavid

Calder: Matty Beniers

Selke: Patrice Bergeron

Norris: Adam Fox

Vezina: Linus Ulmark

GM of the Year: Don Sweeney

Jack Adams: Jim Montgomery

5. My NHL Playoffs Predictions…

Eastern Conference…

Round One…

• Bruins beat Panthers in Five

• Hurricanes beat Islanders in Five

• Rangers beat Devils in Seven

• Leafs Beat Lightning in Seven

Round Two…

• Bruins beat Leafs in Seven

• Rangers beat Hurricanes in Seven

Round Three…

• Bruins beat Rangers in Seven

Western Conference…

Round One…

• Golden Knights beat Jets in Six

• Avs beat Kraken in Six

• Stars beat Wild in Seven

• Oilers beat Kings in Six

Round Two…

• Avs beat Wild in Six

• Oilers beat Golden Knights in Six

Round Three…

• Oilers beat Avs in Seven

Cup Finals…

• Bruins beat Oilers in Seven

This Eastern Conference bracket has all the makings of an all-time great playoff, with every series a defacto coin fli outside of the two Wild Card series.

The Western Conference should not be slept on either. Yes, it lacks the number of powerhouses that the East has, but the Avs and Oilers are true heavyweights. Every series should be close.

6. Focusing in on the Leafs, this, truly, is it.

2016-17, there was zero shame in losing to a Capitals team that was simply better. The Leafs were just happy to make the playoffs. 17-18 saw progress in the sense that they were a definitive playoff team, but it still seemed a year too early to beat a team like the Bruins in the playoffs.

And 18-19 against the Bruins and 21-22 against Tampa Bay were true coin-flip series that could have gone either way.

Then there was 2020 against the Blue Jackets and 2021 against Montreal. Two series the Leafs absolutely had to win and did not. True blackmarks in the history of the franchise.

Now, there is this year. If the Leafs beat Tampa and hold their own against Boston, every failure that this group had in the past can be erased, because we will know this core, when it matters most, can win against the very best. You will bring back Kyle Dubas and Sheldon Keefe and instantly begin to try and re-sign Auston Matthews and Nylander, both of whom can be re-signed on July 1st.

But if they fail to get past Tampa, who they are absolutely better than, for as good as the Lightning still are, it will be the end of the most disappointing era in franchise history.

It will not matter if they get “unlucky” or if they were simply on the wrong side of a bad call, great goaltending performance, etc. They have put themselves in the position of it being now or never.

It seems as though we have been saying this since they lost to Montreal, but it is truly now or never this time with Matthews and Nylander a year away from free agency and Kyle Dubas no longer under contract. You either invest in this core by June 30th by re-signing Matthews and Nylander long-term or you do not. It may not even be their choice at this point either, as Matthews may very well say he is not re-signing.

So, they have to win. Otherwise, Dubas and Sheldon Keefe will certainly be gone and at least one major core piece will be gone as well. That does not mean this team will not be a Cup contender next season, but it means they will look very, very different. And they would look very different because they would have to, with this group being 0-7 in the first round should they lose to Tampa.

Buckle up. An entire generation of Maple Leafs hockey comes down to the next two weeks.

7. With all that being said, if I were MLSE and Brendan Shanahan (who I would be shocked to see fired even if the Leafs lose to Tampa), here would be my tiers when it comes to the core heading into the playoffs…

On the Hot Seat…

1. Keefe

2. Morgan Riley

3. Nylander

Would Have to Consider Moving on From…

1. Tavares

Would Not Even Consider…

1. Matthews

2. Marner

3. Dubas

The jury is still out on Keefe and if he can coach in the playoffs, while Riley has had a down year and has been here for a lot of losing. Nylander is an easy target because he is a year out from free agency.

Asking Tavares to waive his no-trade clause would send shockwaves through the city, while Matthews, Marner, and Dubas should all be safe.

Dubas flat-out has built one of the best teams in the sport, while Matthews and Marner you keep every single time until they finally break through.

8. When it comes to the actual series itself, here are what my lines would be for the Leafs…

Forwards…

Tavares - Matthews - Marner

Matthew Knies - O’Reilly - Nylander

Bunting - Noel Accari - Calle Jarnkrok

Kerfoot - David Kampf - Sam Lafferty

Extras: Zach Aston-Reese and Wayne Simmonds

Defence…

Jake McCabe - T.J. Brodie

Mark Giordano - Justin Holl

Riley - Luke Schenn

Extras: Erik Gustafsson and Timothy Liljegren

Goaltending…

Samsonov

Matt Murray/Woll

The defensive pairings and goaltending have been set in stone for a while now.

Offensively, coming into the week, I had Aston-Reese on the fourth line and Knies in the press box, but I would start the series with Knies. I think there is too much upside to not play him.

He looked good with O’Reilly and Nylander, both of whom should start together given how well they have played as a duo. That is where I would start him, allowing the Leafs to stack their first line and allow them to play two 20-goal scorers on the third line.

If he struggles, I would put Bunting on line one, Tavares on line two, Kerfoot on line three, and Aston-Reese on line four, but this is how I would begin.

9. What a relief it was to see the Raptors season come to its rightful end in an awful play-in performance against the Bulls.

The least enjoyable season as a Toronto sports fan, between the Leafs, Blue Jays, and Raptors, since the 2014-2015 Maple Leafs, as just like that team, this one had no direction.

Now it is time for massive changes. Masai Ujiri and Bobby Webster are going nowhere – nor should they – but they have to make a decision on Nick Nurse and I truly do not know what I would do if I were them in that regard.

They then have to decide what they want to do with the roster.

Either go all in for a championship or blow it up and rebuild. This core has a lot of good to great players, but as a group, it is not built to win a championship. They do not shoot well enough, they do not defend well enough, they do not have a number one option, and they have no depth, despite being right at the luxury tax.

Given all that, it is tough to see them going all-in for a championship, because unless they are trading Scottie Barnes (which they should not do) it is tough to see how they can land a better player in a Pascal Siakam or OG Anunoby trade.

So, blowing it up is the best path. That means letting your free agents walk (or sign-and-trade them) and trading Siakam and Anunoby, both of whom should receive “godfather” packages, which would be a great way to kick off a rebuild.

It is unfortunate, because this core is filled with so many talented players, but a season like this is inexcusable. Being bad is fine. Being bad when you are trying to be good is not.

Under no circumstance can they run it back with this group and simply add depth players around the core. That does not move the needle.

And this needs to be a needle-moving offseason for Ujiri and ‘co. Otherwise, the attention is going to turn to him, because he has lost every offseason since the championship.